Application of the NARX Model for Forecasting Wind Speed for Wind Energy Generation

Abstract

The wind energy matrix has been gradually increasing in recent years and its importance for the renewable energy industry is increasingly linked to environmental benefits. This study applies the NARX model to forecast wind speed in the short term and, consequently, wind energy generation. The research used data from the SONDA project (System of National Organization of Environmental Data), organized by INPE, specifically from the Brasília anemometric station, covering the period from February 2005 to March 2019. The results indicate that the NARX model achieved better performance for short-term forecasts of 10 minutes up to 10 steps ahead, providing greater reliability in wind energy delivery for the energy sector.