Estimativa do Número de Casos de Tuberculose no Município de Capanema/PA para o Ano de 2015 Utilizando o Método das Médias Móveis

Abstract

The study employed the Simple Moving Average Method to estimate the number of tuberculosis cases in the municipality of Capanema/PA in 2015, based on monthly data from 2003 to 2014. The analysis revealed that the 7-period moving average yielded the lowest mean squared error, predicting approximately 20 cases for the first half of 2015. The results underscore the importance of statistical tools for public health policy planning, particularly in regions with high tuberculosis incidence, such as the Amazon.